Tuesday, June 21, 2005

What passes for incessant and widening budget and current account deficits is really the unfolding of J. Peter Grace's contention in 1981 that compound interest and time would wipe out any amount of $$. " Given twenty years time and compounding there isn't enough money" ( read: without hyperinflation ) to pay for the future dimension of these programs, Medicare/Medicade; Soc Sec; et alia. Twentyfour years on the money is sloshing out of the US because it's going to pay off outsider's claims on a first come first served basis...don't forget to get paid before the feds do what they're so good at: breaking promises. While Congress crushed Grace for calling them clowns (he apologized "Only half of them are clowns") , Greenspan meanwhile is "credited", in the last government action on Soc Sec, with upping the age to retire while simultaneously taxing the benefits . Add to that the consumer here reflexively piling on the debt. Soc Sec will force the feds hand and all kinds of "reforms" like new borrowing, increased taxation, reduced benefits will come spilling out of congress. Let's be sure to get paid before the money runs out. Do not be fooled by a record low in the implied volatility of S&P 500 options. It's sure to rebound and in a big way as government bonds reverse. Consider spreading the out of the money puts.